Are cost models useful for telecoms regulators in developing countries?

Worldwide privatization of the telecommunications industry, and the introduction of competition in the sector, together with the ever-increasing rate of technological advance in telecommunications, raise new and critical challenges for regulation. Fo matters of pricing, universal service obligations, and the like, one question to be answered is this: What is the efficient cost of providing the service to a certain area or type of customer? As developing countries build up their capacity to regulate their privatized infrastructure monopolies, cost models are likely to prove increasingly important in answering this question. Cost models deliver a number of benefits to a regulator willing to apply them, but they also ask for something in advance: information. Without information, the question cannot be answered. The authors introduce cost models and establish their applicability when different degrees of information are available to the regulator. They do no by running a cost model with different sets of actual data form Argentina's second largest city, and comparing results. Reliable, detailed information is generally scarce in developing countries. The authors establish the minimum information requirements for a regulator implementing a cost proxy model approach, showing that this data constraint need not be that binding.ICT Policy and Strategies,Decentralization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Business Environment,ICT Policy and Strategies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Geographical Information Systems,Economic Theory&Research,Educational Technology and Distance Education

DO INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATIONS NEED RE-INVENTINg? AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELEVANCE OF THE U.S. SIC SYSTEM FOR PRODUCTIVITY RESEARCH

Two separate empirical investigations into the conceptual structure underlying the U.S. SIC were undertaken. Government industry specialists and industry classification experts reviewed individual4-digit U.S. SICs and judgmentally determined if these industries had been constructed by grouping similar production processes, or, alternatively, by grouping similar markets. Independently, an algorithm derived from the diversification index developed by Gollop and Monahan (1991) was used to measure the heterogeneity of establishment production functions, by 4-digit industry, using the Census Longitudinal Research Database file. The two reviews yielded broadly similar results: Only about one fifth of US. industries have been designed to be approximately consistent with aggregation conditions derived from production theory

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. FINDINGS: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. INTERPRETATION: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7

Regulatory T Cell Responses in Participants with Type 1 Diabetes after a Single Dose of Interleukin-2: A Non-Randomised, Open Label, Adaptive Dose-Finding Trial

BACKGROUND: Interleukin-2 (IL-2) has an essential role in the expansion and function of CD4+ regulatory T cells (Tregs). Tregs reduce tissue damage by limiting the immune response following infection and regulate autoreactive CD4+ effector T cells (Teffs) to prevent autoimmune diseases, such as type 1 diabetes (T1D). Genetic susceptibility to T1D causes alterations in the IL-2 pathway, a finding that supports Tregs as a cellular therapeutic target. Aldesleukin (Proleukin; recombinant human IL-2), which is administered at high doses to activate the immune system in cancer immunotherapy, is now being repositioned to treat inflammatory and autoimmune disorders at lower doses by targeting Tregs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To define the aldesleukin dose response for Tregs and to find doses that increase Tregs physiologically for treatment of T1D, a statistical and systematic approach was taken by analysing the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of single doses of subcutaneous aldesleukin in the Adaptive Study of IL-2 Dose on Regulatory T Cells in Type 1 Diabetes (DILT1D), a single centre, non-randomised, open label, adaptive dose-finding trial with 40 adult participants with recently diagnosed T1D. The primary endpoint was the maximum percentage increase in Tregs (defined as CD3+CD4+CD25highCD127low) from the baseline frequency in each participant measured over the 7 d following treatment. There was an initial learning phase with five pairs of participants, each pair receiving one of five pre-assigned single doses from 0.04 × 106 to 1.5 × 106 IU/m2, in order to model the dose-response curve. Results from each participant were then incorporated into interim statistical modelling to target the two doses most likely to induce 10% and 20% increases in Treg frequencies. Primary analysis of the evaluable population (n = 39) found that the optimal doses of aldesleukin to induce 10% and 20% increases in Tregs were 0.101 × 106 IU/m2 (standard error [SE] = 0.078, 95% CI = -0.052, 0.254) and 0.497 × 106 IU/m2 (SE = 0.092, 95% CI = 0.316, 0.678), respectively. On analysis of secondary outcomes, using a highly sensitive IL-2 assay, the observed plasma concentrations of the drug at 90 min exceeded the hypothetical Treg-specific therapeutic window determined in vitro (0.015-0.24 IU/ml), even at the lowest doses (0.040 × 106 and 0.045 × 106 IU/m2) administered. A rapid decrease in Treg frequency in the circulation was observed at 90 min and at day 1, which was dose dependent (mean decrease 11.6%, SE = 2.3%, range 10.0%-48.2%, n = 37), rebounding at day 2 and increasing to frequencies above baseline over 7 d. Teffs, natural killer cells, and eosinophils also responded, with their frequencies rapidly and dose-dependently decreased in the blood, then returning to, or exceeding, pretreatment levels. Furthermore, there was a dose-dependent down modulation of one of the two signalling subunits of the IL-2 receptor, the β chain (CD122) (mean decrease = 58.0%, SE = 2.8%, range 9.8%-85.5%, n = 33), on Tregs and a reduction in their sensitivity to aldesleukin at 90 min and day 1 and 2 post-treatment. Due to blood volume requirements as well as ethical and practical considerations, the study was limited to adults and to analysis of peripheral blood only. CONCLUSIONS: The DILT1D trial results, most notably the early altered trafficking and desensitisation of Tregs induced by a single ultra-low dose of aldesleukin that resolves within 2-3 d, inform the design of the next trial to determine a repeat dosing regimen aimed at establishing a steady-state Treg frequency increase of 20%-50%, with the eventual goal of preventing T1D. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN27852285; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01827735.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.100213

Age-related immune response heterogeneity to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine BNT162b2

Abstract: Although two-dose mRNA vaccination provides excellent protection against SARS-CoV-2, there is little information about vaccine efficacy against variants of concern (VOC) in individuals above eighty years of age1. Here we analysed immune responses following vaccination with the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine2 in elderly participants and younger healthcare workers. Serum neutralization and levels of binding IgG or IgA after the first vaccine dose were lower in older individuals, with a marked drop in participants over eighty years old. Sera from participants above eighty showed lower neutralization potency against the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta) and P.1. (Gamma) VOC than against the wild-type virus and were more likely to lack any neutralization against VOC following the first dose. However, following the second dose, neutralization against VOC was detectable regardless of age. The frequency of SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific memory B cells was higher in elderly responders (whose serum showed neutralization activity) than in non-responders after the first dose. Elderly participants showed a clear reduction in somatic hypermutation of class-switched cells. The production of interferon-γ and interleukin-2 by SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific T cells was lower in older participants, and both cytokines were secreted primarily by CD4 T cells. We conclude that the elderly are a high-risk population and that specific measures to boost vaccine responses in this population are warranted, particularly where variants of concern are circulating

Screening of healthcare workers for SARS-CoV-2 highlights the role of asymptomatic carriage in COVID-19 transmission

Funder: Addenbrooke's Charitable Trust, Cambridge University Hospitals; FundRef: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002927Significant differences exist in the availability of healthcare worker (HCW) SARS-CoV-2 testing between countries, and existing programmes focus on screening symptomatic rather than asymptomatic staff. Over a 3 week period (April 2020), 1032 asymptomatic HCWs were screened for SARS-CoV-2 in a large UK teaching hospital. Symptomatic staff and symptomatic household contacts were additionally tested. Real-time RT-PCR was used to detect viral RNA from a throat+nose self-swab. 3% of HCWs in the asymptomatic screening group tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 17/30 (57%) were truly asymptomatic/pauci-symptomatic. 12/30 (40%) had experienced symptoms compatible with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)>7 days prior to testing, most self-isolating, returning well. Clusters of HCW infection were discovered on two independent wards. Viral genome sequencing showed that the majority of HCWs had the dominant lineage B∙1. Our data demonstrates the utility of comprehensive screening of HCWs with minimal or no symptoms. This approach will be critical for protecting patients and hospital staff

Single-cell multi-omics analysis of the immune response in COVID-19

Funder: Lister Institute of Preventive Medicine; doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001255Funder: University College London, Birkbeck MRC Doctoral Training ProgrammeFunder: The Jikei University School of MedicineFunder: Action Medical Research (GN2779)Funder: NIHR Clinical Lectureship (CL-2017-01-004)Funder: NIHR (ACF-2018-01-004) and the BMA FoundationFunder: Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (grant 2017-174169) and from Wellcome (WT211276/Z/18/Z and Sanger core grant WT206194)Funder: UKRI Innovation/Rutherford Fund Fellowship allocated by the MRC and the UK Regenerative Medicine Platform (MR/5005579/1 to M.Z.N.). M.Z.N. and K.B.M. have been funded by the Rosetrees Trust (M944)Funder: Barbour FoundationFunder: ERC Consolidator and EU MRG-Grammar awardsFunder: Versus Arthritis Cure Challenge Research Grant (21777), and an NIHR Research Professorship (RP-2017-08-ST2-002)Funder: European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL)Abstract: Analysis of human blood immune cells provides insights into the coordinated response to viral infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We performed single-cell transcriptome, surface proteome and T and B lymphocyte antigen receptor analyses of over 780,000 peripheral blood mononuclear cells from a cross-sectional cohort of 130 patients with varying severities of COVID-19. We identified expansion of nonclassical monocytes expressing complement transcripts (CD16+C1QA/B/C+) that sequester platelets and were predicted to replenish the alveolar macrophage pool in COVID-19. Early, uncommitted CD34+ hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells were primed toward megakaryopoiesis, accompanied by expanded megakaryocyte-committed progenitors and increased platelet activation. Clonally expanded CD8+ T cells and an increased ratio of CD8+ effector T cells to effector memory T cells characterized severe disease, while circulating follicular helper T cells accompanied mild disease. We observed a relative loss of IgA2 in symptomatic disease despite an overall expansion of plasmablasts and plasma cells. Our study highlights the coordinated immune response that contributes to COVID-19 pathogenesis and reveals discrete cellular components that can be targeted for therapy

SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 Delta variant replication and immune evasion

Abstract: The B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and spread throughout India, outcompeting pre-existing lineages including B.1.617.1 (Kappa) and B.1.1.7 (Alpha)1. In vitro, B.1.617.2 is sixfold less sensitive to serum neutralizing antibodies from recovered individuals, and eightfold less sensitive to vaccine-elicited antibodies, compared with wild-type Wuhan-1 bearing D614G. Serum neutralizing titres against B.1.617.2 were lower in ChAdOx1 vaccinees than in BNT162b2 vaccinees. B.1.617.2 spike pseudotyped viruses exhibited compromised sensitivity to monoclonal antibodies to the receptor-binding domain and the amino-terminal domain. B.1.617.2 demonstrated higher replication efficiency than B.1.1.7 in both airway organoid and human airway epithelial systems, associated with B.1.617.2 spike being in a predominantly cleaved state compared with B.1.1.7 spike. The B.1.617.2 spike protein was able to mediate highly efficient syncytium formation that was less sensitive to inhibition by neutralizing antibody, compared with that of wild-type spike. We also observed that B.1.617.2 had higher replication and spike-mediated entry than B.1.617.1, potentially explaining the B.1.617.2 dominance. In an analysis of more than 130 SARS-CoV-2-infected health care workers across three centres in India during a period of mixed lineage circulation, we observed reduced ChAdOx1 vaccine effectiveness against B.1.617.2 relative to non-B.1.617.2, with the caveat of possible residual confounding. Compromised vaccine efficacy against the highly fit and immune-evasive B.1.617.2 Delta variant warrants continued infection control measures in the post-vaccination era

Did Deregulation Affect Aircraft Engine Maintenance? An Empirical Policy Analysis

Examination of aircraft engine histories provided by Pratt & Whitney, Inc., indicates a significant increase in the number of engine hours between major overhauls in the period following deregulation. Parametric analysis of times between overhauls, which controls for other variables affecting the length of the shop visit cycle, suggests that deregulation is a significant factor in the change. Logit analysis, however, shows that engine "failures" (as measured by in-flight shutdowns) have not increased as a result of deregulation. These findings suggest that airlines have responded to competitive pressures by optimizing scheduled service times and perhaps by improving the quality of service performed by paying less attention to minor problems between scheduled shop visits.

A Structural Model of Aircraft Engine Maintenance.

We develop and estimate a simple regenerative optimal stopping model of aircraft engine maintenance that attempts to describe the behaviour of airline maintenance personnel. The model assumes that the decision to send an engine to the shop for overhaul is the solution to a stochastic dynamic programming problem that trades off the expected cost of continuing operation with the attendant risk of engine failure with the cost of performing the overhaul. We estimate the model using 42 engine histories from Pratt & Whitney, Inc. Estimation results indicate that such a model does not explain observed engine histories before deregulation, but does fit the data in the era since deregulation. The model also provides insight into the perceived relative costs of engine maintenance, in-flight shutdown, and ordinary operation. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.